Monthly Industry Report
Comprehensive analysis of prediction market platform launches, record US state revenues, UK regulatory changes, industry consolidation, and 2025 year-end market performance for December 2025.
Executive Summary
The global online gambling market reached an estimated $113.5 billion in December 2025, marking the end of a transformative year. FanDuel and DraftKings launched prediction market platforms, both resigning from the American Gaming Association to pursue this new vertical. US commercial gaming revenue hit $64.3B through October (+8.7% YoY), with New York posting record $280.6M revenue in November. UK operators adapt to 40% gaming duty while facing cross-selling restrictions effective January 19, 2026.
Key Market Metrics
Year-end surge driven by NFL playoffs, prediction market launches, and holiday betting
FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions mobile apps drive new user acquisition
AI-powered fraud detection and personalization now standard across major operators
Prediction market platform launches and Missouri expansion add new licensees
Current Market Trends
FanDuel and DraftKings Go Live with Prediction Market Platforms
FanDuel Predicts launches December 22 in five states (Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota) in partnership with CME Group, while DraftKings Predictions goes live across 38 states. Both operators resigned from the American Gaming Association, signaling strategic pivot away from traditional sportsbook focus. Platforms offer sports, economic, and cultural event contracts under CFTC regulation
December 20-22, 2025 platform launches
New York Hits $280M November Revenue, NJ Parlay Revenue Tops $100M
New York sportsbooks posted $2.61B handle and $280.6M revenue in November 2025, the state's most profitable month ever with 10.74% win rate. FanDuel and DraftKings lead all operators. New Jersey set sports betting tax revenue record at $28.6M, with parlay revenue exceeding $100M for the first time on a 22.9% house win rate
November 2025 revenue data
UKGC Cross-Selling Ban and New Promotional Rules Take Effect
UK Gambling Commission implements new cross-selling restrictions effective January 19, 2026, banning promotions that mix different gambling types within the same offer. Betfred fined £825,000 for AML and social responsibility failings. Commission receives additional £26M funding over three years following Autumn Budget. Remote gaming duty at 40% and 25% betting tax now in effect
January 19, 2026 cross-selling ban
Major Operators Exit AGA as Prediction Markets Reshape Industry
Both FanDuel and DraftKings resign from the American Gaming Association, citing strategic divergence with AGA priorities around prediction markets. Analysts predict consolidation to 'big five' players in prediction market space: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Nevada license surrenders signal incompatibility between sportsbook and prediction market operations
December 2025 industry shift
2025 Closes with $64.3B Commercial Gaming Revenue Through October
American Gaming Association reports commercial gaming revenue of $64.30B through first ten months of 2025, up 8.7% year-over-year. Sports betting revenue reached $1.60B in October alone (+57.4%) on $17.78B handle (+23.7%). Traditional casino gaming posts best October on record. State tax revenue from sports betting surged 382% from 2021 to 2025
2025 year-end data
Regional Insights
🇺🇸🇨🇦North America
Key Highlights
- •FanDuel Predicts launches in 5 states, DraftKings Predictions in 38 states
- •New York $2.61B handle, $280.6M revenue sets all-time monthly record
- •New Jersey parlay revenue tops $100M for first time on 22.9% hold
- •Commercial gaming revenue hits $64.3B through October (+8.7% YoY)
- •Missouri mobile sports betting successfully launched December 1
Challenges
- •FanDuel and DraftKings exit American Gaming Association
- •Prediction market state availability creates fragmented access
- •Sports betting problem gambling concerns rise among young men
- •Bankruptcy rates up 28% in states with online gambling access
🇪🇺Europe
Key Highlights
- •New CFTC chair Michael Selig confirmed, signals regulatory clarity
- •Seven-nation coalition coordination against illegal gambling continues
- •Germany licensing framework matures with improved compliance
- •AMLA harmonization standardizes AML/KYC requirements across EU
- •Bet365 reports formidable revenue despite investment pressures
Challenges
- •UK 40% gaming duty and 25% betting tax now fully in effect
- •Cross-selling ban effective January 19, 2026 forces promotional restructuring
- •Betfred £825K fine signals intensified UKGC enforcement
- •£26M additional Gambling Commission funding increases oversight
🌏Asia-Pacific
Key Highlights
- •Mobile betting maintains 91%+ market share across region
- •AI-powered personalization reaches near-universal adoption
- •Philippines and India show continued market expansion
- •Regional operators invest in responsible gambling technology
- •Holiday season drives strong end-of-year wagering volumes
Challenges
- •Post-Spring Carnival seasonal normalization affects Australian volumes
- •Regulatory uncertainty persists in emerging Southeast Asian markets
- •Cross-border payment complexity increases operational costs
- •Competition from global prediction market platforms intensifies
Operator Spotlight
Prediction Market Expansion
FanDuel Predicts goes live December 22 in five non-betting states through CME Group partnership, while DraftKings Predictions launches across 38 states. Both operators resigned from the AGA, with FanDuel citing that 'this direction is not aligned with the AGA's current priorities.' Investors remain cautious with multiple court cases outstanding
US Market Dominance
US sports betting continues explosive growth with $64.3B commercial gaming revenue through October 2025. New York generated $1.19B+ in mobile sportsbook tax revenue in 2025 alone. State tax revenue from sports betting increased 382% from Q3 2021 to Q2 2025, from $190M to $917M quarterly
UK Compliance Challenges
UK operators face mounting regulatory pressure as Gambling Commission intensifies enforcement with £26M additional funding. Betfred hit with £825K penalty for AML and social responsibility failings. Cross-selling ban effective January 19 forces promotional strategy overhaul. Operators adapt to 40% remote gaming duty regime
Upcoming Industry Events
UK Cross-Selling Ban Takes Effect
UKGC cross-selling restrictions become effective, banning promotions that combine different gambling types within the same offer. Operators must restructure promotional campaigns and customer acquisition strategies to comply with new regulations
NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl LX Buildup
NFL playoff season kicks off with record betting volumes expected following exceptional regular season performance. Super Bowl LX in New Orleans projected to generate $1B+ in legal wagers with enhanced prediction market participation
Super Bowl LX - New Orleans
Biggest single-day sports betting event of the year expected to set new records across traditional sportsbooks and prediction market platforms. Both FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions to offer Super Bowl contracts in applicable states
UK LCCP Changes and M&A Rule Updates
UK Gambling Commission implements new Licence Conditions and Codes of Practice (LCCP) changes to address increased complexity of mergers and acquisitions and globalization of gambling. Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act integration takes effect
Risk Assessment
Problem Gambling Crisis Escalation
Research shows bankruptcy rates rose 28% and debt collection amounts rose 8% in states with online gambling access approximately two years after legalization. National Problem Gambling Helpline calls continue rising as sports betting expands. Young men identified as particularly vulnerable demographic
Implement enhanced responsible gambling tools, deploy AI-powered early intervention systems, increase self-exclusion program visibility, collaborate with regulators on affordability measures, and invest in problem gambling research and treatment funding
Prediction Market Legal Challenges
Multiple court cases outstanding as prediction markets expand rapidly. Truist Securities analyst notes 'Supreme Court showdown likely' on prediction market regulation. FanDuel and DraftKings AGA departures signal industry fragmentation. State-level conflicts with sports betting licenses create operational complexity
Monitor federal and state regulatory developments closely, maintain flexible licensing structures, develop clear product differentiation strategies, engage proactively with CFTC and state regulators on compliance frameworks
UK Operator Margin Pressure
Combined impact of 40% remote gaming duty, 25% betting tax, cross-selling ban, and intensified UKGC enforcement creates significant margin pressure. 13 operators faced regulatory action in 2025 with Betfred receiving second penalty. £26M additional enforcement funding signals continued scrutiny
Accelerate compliance investments, restructure promotional strategies ahead of January 19 deadline, evaluate UK market commitment vs growth alternatives, implement operational efficiency programs, diversify revenue across jurisdictions
Market Consolidation Pressure
Analysts predict consolidation to 'big five' players in prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Traditional sportsbook differentiation increasingly difficult. Customer acquisition costs remain elevated in mature markets. Smaller operators face survival challenges
Develop unique product offerings, leverage AI for personalization and retention, pursue strategic partnerships or M&A opportunities, focus on underserved customer segments or geographic niches, explore prediction market adjacencies
Data Sources & Methodology
Research Methodology
This report synthesizes data from multiple authoritative sources to provide comprehensive market insights. All statistics are verified through cross-referencing industry reports and official regulatory data.
Primary Sources
- • Bloomberg - FanDuel Predicts launch coverage and CME Group partnership details
- • New York State Gaming Commission - November 2025 sportsbook revenue ($280.6M record)
- • RG.org - State-by-state revenue tracking for NY ($2.61B handle) and NJ ($1.28B handle)
- • American Gaming Association - Commercial gaming revenue tracker ($64.3B through October)
- • U.S. Census Bureau - State tax revenue analysis showing 382% sports betting growth
- • InGame/Sports Handle - NJ parlay revenue data ($100M+ November record)
Regulatory & Compliance Sources
- • UK Gambling Commission - Cross-selling ban guidance and enforcement actions
- • CFTC - Michael Selig confirmation and prediction market regulatory framework
- • CMS Law - UK gambling operator regulatory action analysis (13 operators May-Dec 2025)
- • CDC Gaming Reports - Betfred £825K fine and AML enforcement coverage
- • SBC News - Prediction market regulatory landscape and CFTC developments
Market Intelligence & Analytics
- • Truist Securities - Prediction market investor analysis and Supreme Court outlook
- • Axios - US sports betting boom analysis and problem gambling impact data
- • Sportsbookreview.com - FanDuel Predicts state availability and DraftKings coverage
- • Grand View Research/DemandSage - Global market size estimates ($91-117B range)
- • Front Office Sports - Operator AGA departures and industry consolidation analysis
Note: Market size estimates vary between sources due to different methodologies and regional inclusions. We present ranges and use conservative mid-point estimates where discrepancies exist. All data current as of December 2025.