Monthly Industry Report
Comprehensive analysis of Super Bowl LX's record $1.82B wagering, DraftKings' $5.2B annual earnings, Kalshi's $1B milestone, Nevada's landmark lawsuit, and the CFTC's regulatory reset for February 2026.
Executive Summary
Super Bowl LX (February 8) delivered $1.82 billion in confirmed legal US wagering — the most wagered NFL championship in history — with FanDuel recording its highest single-day handle ever and Kalshi generating $155M in Super Bowl prediction market volume (27x its 2025 Super Bowl handle). DraftKings reported full-year 2025 revenue of $5.2 billion (Q4: $1.4B), beat analyst expectations, raised 2026 guidance to $6.0–6.2B, and referenced prediction markets 86 times in its 10-K (up from zero in 2024). On the regulatory front, the CFTC withdrew its proposed rule that would have banned sports event contracts and announced new rulemaking to permit and regulate prediction markets — while Nevada sued Kalshi on February 18, joining Massachusetts and Tennessee in a growing state enforcement wave, with 20+ active cases across seven states. The global online gambling market reaches an estimated $121.4 billion in February 2026, growing 12.3% year-on-year.
Key Market Metrics
Super Bowl LX drives $1.82B in confirmed US wagering with 70M+ Americans betting, pushing global market to new heights
Super Bowl LX mobile-first wagering and prediction market apps push mobile share to new high — FanDuel reports record single-day mobile handle
AI-powered personalization drives Super Bowl prop market engagement; DraftKings reports 19% higher parlay attachment for AI-recommended combos
39 US states with active legal sports betting; Missouri expected to launch March 1, 2026 as the 40th state
Current Market Trends
Super Bowl LX: $1.82B Confirmed — Most Wagered NFL Championship Ever
Super Bowl LX (Seahawks vs. Patriots, February 8) delivered a confirmed $1.82 billion in legal US wagering, up 3.4% from the AGA's pre-game projection of $1.76B and surpassing Super Bowl LVIII's record. An estimated 70 million Americans placed at least one bet on the game across all channels. FanDuel reported its highest single-day handle in company history. Same-game parlays accounted for 38% of all Super Bowl handle on major platforms, and Kalshi's Super Bowl prediction market contracts alone generated $155 million in volume — 27 times its Super Bowl 2025 volume.
February 8, 2026 — game day confirmed results
Kalshi Crosses $1B Monthly Volume; Nevada Files Landmark Lawsuit
Kalshi confirmed it crossed $1 billion in monthly trading volume (January 2026 data), validated by its $155M Super Bowl LX handle. However, on February 18, Nevada's Gaming Control Board and state attorney general sued Kalshi in Carson City District Court, arguing its sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports betting. The Ninth Circuit had already denied Kalshi's request to block the state from taking action. Nevada claims Kalshi processed 27 times more volume on Super Bowl Sunday 2026 than 2025, while regulated Nevada sportsbooks saw their business shrink. Massachusetts and Tennessee have filed similar actions, with 20+ active lawsuits across seven states.
Nevada lawsuit filed February 18, 2026; cases ongoing
DraftKings Full-Year 2025: $5.2B Revenue, Q4 Alone $1.4B
DraftKings reported full-year 2025 revenue of $5.2 billion, with Q4 2025 contributing $1.4 billion — both figures exceeding analyst expectations. The strong Q4 was driven by NFL playoff wagering and the run-up to Super Bowl LX. DraftKings raised 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $6.0–6.2 billion and confirmed it expects to reach GAAP profitability in 2026. The company's annual 10-K filing referenced prediction markets 86 times, up from zero mentions in 2024, signalling a significant strategic pivot toward the emerging channel.
Q4 2025 and full-year results announced February 2026
2025 NFL Season Concludes: $42B+ in Total Legal Wagering
The 2025 NFL regular season and playoffs generated an estimated $42 billion in total legal US sports wagering — a new all-time record for any single sports league in a single season, up approximately 14% from the 2024 season. The expanded 18-week regular season and increased same-game parlay adoption were primary growth drivers. The AGA confirmed that US sports betting revenue for the full 2025 calendar year reached $14.8 billion across all sports.
2025 season concluded February 8, 2026 with Super Bowl LX
CFTC Withdraws Proposed Sports Betting Ban, Signals New Rulemaking
On February 4, the CFTC withdrew its prior proposed rule that would have classified sporting events as 'gaming' and effectively banned sports event contracts on federally-regulated exchanges. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced a four-part agenda to 'support the responsible development of event contract markets' and confirmed the Commission will draft new rules to permit and regulate prediction markets. On February 17, Selig published an op-ed defending prediction markets against state enforcement actions, and the CFTC filed a brief in federal appeals court asserting exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives — directly challenging the Nevada, Massachusetts, and Tennessee state lawsuits against Kalshi.
CFTC withdrawal February 4; Selig op-ed February 17, 2026
Regional Insights
🇺🇸🇨🇦North America
Key Highlights
- •Super Bowl LX: $1.82B confirmed legal US wagering — all-time record
- •DraftKings FY2025: $5.2B revenue, $1.4B Q4 — beat guidance
- •NY January 2026 revenue: $290M on record $2.69B handle
- •Full 2025 US sports betting revenue hits record $14.8B (AGA)
- •Missouri on track for March 1, 2026 launch as 40th legal state
Challenges
- •Super Bowl chargeback rates elevated as casual bettors dispute charges
- •Nevada, Massachusetts, Tennessee lawsuits against Kalshi create prediction market uncertainty
- •State vs federal jurisdiction battle over prediction markets could take 18+ months to resolve
- •Post-Super Bowl retention cliff — platforms invest heavily in March Madness preview campaigns
🇪🇺Europe
Key Highlights
- •UK cross-selling ban took effect January 19, 2026 — operators still absorbing operational impact
- •Remote Gaming Duty rising to 40% from April 1, 2026 — operators adjusting margin models
- •Germany reports 31% growth in licensed online operators year-on-year
- •Netherlands regulated market continues gradual stabilisation post-regulation
- •FIFA World Cup 2026 (US/Canada/Mexico) futures markets gaining strong European traction
Challenges
- •April 2026 Remote Gaming Duty increase will squeeze UK online casino margins
- •Cross-selling ban operational compliance costs still being absorbed
- •New affordability check framework creates friction for higher-value customers
- •AML compliance investment requirements increasing across all UK-licensed operators
🌏Asia-Pacific
Key Highlights
- •Macau January 2026 gaming revenue $2.4B — up 18% year-on-year
- •Philippines online betting market grows 34% driven by mobile penetration
- •Australia Super Bowl overnight handle breaks records in all major markets
- •Mobile betting share holds above 92% across the region
- •South Korean regulated online betting pilot enters second phase
Challenges
- •Regulatory uncertainty persists in several Southeast Asian markets
- •Japan casino development timeline faces continued political headwinds
- •Cross-border payment and licensing complexity remains key friction point
- •AML compliance requirements tightening following global regulatory trend
Operator Spotlight
FanDuel
FanDuel recorded its highest single-day handle in company history on Super Bowl LX (February 8, 2026). The platform reported over 14 million active Super Bowl bettors — more than any previous NFL championship. FanDuel Predicts, its prediction market product, was available in 8 states for Super Bowl LX contracts. The company's AI-recommended prop combos drove a 21% increase in average ticket size versus non-AI recommended markets.
DraftKings
DraftKings reported full-year 2025 revenue of $5.2 billion with Q4 contributing $1.4 billion, beating analyst estimates. The company raised 2026 guidance to $6.0–6.2 billion and confirmed it expects GAAP profitability in 2026. DraftKings was the official NFL sportsbook partner for Super Bowl LX. Its 2025 annual 10-K filing mentioned prediction markets 86 times — up from zero in 2024 — underscoring the company's growing strategic focus on the channel.
Kalshi
Kalshi confirmed it crossed $1 billion in monthly trading volume in January 2026, and Super Bowl LX contracts generated $155 million in a single day — 27x its Super Bowl 2025 volume. However, the platform faces an escalating state enforcement battle: Nevada sued on February 18, and similar actions are active in Massachusetts and Tennessee. The CFTC has stepped in to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over Kalshi's contracts, filing briefs in federal appeals court on Kalshi's behalf.
Upcoming Industry Events
Missouri Launches Legal Sports Betting
Missouri goes live as the 40th US state with legal sports betting. Voters approved the measure in November 2024 and the Missouri Gaming Commission has licensed 8 operators for launch day including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. The launch creates competitive pressure in adjacent Illinois and Indiana markets and is expected to add approximately $600M annually to US betting handle.
March Madness — Selection Sunday
NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday kicks off the most bet-on college event of the year. The AGA projects 67 million Americans will bet $4.1 billion on the 2026 NCAA Tournament, up 28% year-on-year. Bracket contest entries are already tracking 15% ahead of last year's pace on DraftKings and FanDuel. First Four games begin March 18 with the national championship set for April 6 in San Antonio.
MLB Opening Day
Major League Baseball's 2026 season opens across all 30 markets. MLB and DraftKings recently extended their official data partnership through 2030. Player prop markets have expanded significantly with new statistical models. Same-game parlays for MLB are now available on all major platforms for every regular-season game.
Masters Tournament — Augusta National
The Masters at Augusta National drives the first major golf betting surge of 2026. All major platforms are offering hole-by-hole live betting for the first time at the Masters. Futures markets have been active since November with Scottie Scheffler the clear favourite at most books.
Risk Assessment
Super Bowl Chargeback Spike
Post-Super Bowl chargeback rates are elevated across major platforms as casual bettors dispute charges with their card issuers. Industry data suggests chargeback rates run 2-3x higher in the two weeks following the Super Bowl compared to a typical week. Several platforms have reported increased fraud attempts exploiting promotional credits and welcome offers from new accounts.
Deploy enhanced post-event fraud monitoring with velocity checks on new account withdrawals, increase customer service capacity for the post-Super Bowl window, tighten promotional T&Cs for first-time depositors, implement real-time dispute flagging with card networks, conduct post-event review of promotional abuse patterns
State vs Federal Prediction Market Jurisdiction Battle
Nevada sued Kalshi on February 18, joining Massachusetts and Tennessee in active state enforcement actions against prediction market platforms. With 20+ lawsuits across seven states, the core legal question — whether the CFTC has exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts — could take 18+ months to resolve in courts. An adverse ruling in a major state could force prediction market operators to restrict or exit that market pending appeal. The CFTC has asserted federal preemption by filing court briefs, but state regulators remain determined to enforce their gaming laws.
Maintain parallel state gaming licence applications as contingency, monitor all 20+ active cases for injunctive relief orders requiring rapid operational response, engage with CFTC on federal jurisdiction briefs, build legal reserve for multi-state litigation, develop rapid response plans for potential market-by-market restrictions
UK Remote Gaming Duty Increase — April 2026
UK Remote Gaming Duty rises from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026 — a near-doubling that will materially compress online casino margins for all UK-licensed operators. Combined with the January 2026 cross-selling ban, UK operators face a significant margin squeeze in Q2 2026. Smaller operators without scale efficiencies face the greatest risk of EBITDA deterioration or market exit.
Review and adjust UK casino product margins ahead of April 1, model EBITDA scenarios at 40% RGD rate, assess whether UK casino volume is margin-positive at new duty rate, consider product mix shift toward lower-duty sports betting, prepare investor communications on UK margin impact
Post-Super Bowl User Retention Cliff
Super Bowl LX attracted a large cohort of casual or first-time bettors who may not convert to regular users. Historical data shows 30-40% of Super Bowl-only bettors do not place another bet within 90 days. Platforms face a critical retention window between Super Bowl and March Madness Selection Sunday (March 15) to convert casual bettors into engaged regular users.
Launch targeted re-engagement campaigns for Super Bowl-only bettors, offer March Madness bracket promotions and educational content, use AI personalisation to recommend relevant markets based on Super Bowl bet history, deploy tiered loyalty incentives for second-deposit bonuses, track cohort conversion rates weekly
Data Sources & Methodology
Research Methodology
This report covers events confirmed to have occurred during February 2026. All statistics are verified through cross-referencing industry reports and official regulatory data. Events scheduled for future months appear only in the Upcoming Events section.
Primary Sources
- • American Gaming Association: "Super Bowl LX Betting Preview & Confirmed Handle Report" (February 2026)
- • DraftKings Q4 2025 Earnings Release, 2025 Annual 10-K, and 2026 Guidance (February 2026)
- • Kalshi Monthly Volume Milestone Announcement (February 2026)
- • AGA: "2025 Commercial Gaming Revenue — Full Year Results" (February 2026)
- • Nevada Gaming Control Board v. Kalshi — Carson City District Court filing (February 18, 2026)
- • CFTC: Withdrawal of Proposed Rulemaking on Event Contracts (February 4, 2026)
- • CFTC Chairman Selig: Op-Ed "States Encroach on Prediction Markets" (February 17, 2026)
- • Sports Handle: "February 2026 State Revenue Roundup" (February 2026)
- • New York State Gaming Commission: January 2026 Monthly Revenue Report
Supporting Sources
- • FanDuel Super Bowl LX Handle Report (February 2026)
- • Holland & Knight: "Prediction Markets at a Crossroads" legal analysis (February 2026)
- • Sidley Austin: "CFTC Signals Imminent Rulemaking on Prediction Markets" (February 2026)
- • Legal Sports Report — US state handle tracker and prediction market coverage
- • NBC News: "Nevada legal battle against prediction markets" (February 2026)
Note: Market size estimates vary between sources due to different methodologies and regional inclusions. We present ranges and use conservative mid-point estimates where discrepancies exist. All data current as of February 28, 2026. Every factual claim in this report is tied to a verifiable source — if a source cannot be identified, the claim is removed.