Understanding Odds & Markets
Master the fundamentals of betting odds, market types, and value betting to make more informed wagering decisions.
Odds Formats Explained
Decimal Odds
Total return per unit staked (includes original stake)
Example Calculation:
£10 × 2.50 = £25 total return (£15 profit + £10 stake)
Implied Probability:
1 ÷ 2.50 = 0.40 or 40%
Common in:
Pros:
- Easiest to calculate total return
- Clear profit visualization
- No fractions to work with
Cons:
- Less intuitive for probability assessment
- Can be confusing for traditional bettors
Pro Tip:
Used by most professional bettors for quick EV calculations
Fractional Odds
Shows profit relative to stake (profit/stake)
Example Calculation:
£10 at 3/2 = £15 profit + £10 stake = £25 total
Implied Probability:
2 ÷ (3+2) = 0.40 or 40%
Common in:
Pros:
- Traditional format
- Shows profit clearly
- Easy to see value ratios
Cons:
- More complex calculations
- Harder to compare quickly
Pro Tip:
Still preferred by horse racing professionals and traditional UK punters
American Odds
Positive shows profit on $100 bet, negative shows stake needed for $100 profit
Example Calculation:
+150: $100 bet wins $150 profit | -200: $200 bet wins $100 profit
Implied Probability:
+150: 100÷(150+100) = 40% | -200: 200÷(200+100) = 66.7%
Common in:
Pros:
- Clear favorites/underdogs
- Easy to spot value lines
- Quick underdog assessment
Cons:
- Two different calculation methods
- Confusing for international bettors
Pro Tip:
Positive odds immediately show potential profit multiplier
Popular Market Types
Match Result Markets
Moneyline/Match Winner
Pick the winner of the match
Draw No Bet
Bet refunded if match ends in draw
Double Chance
Cover two of three possible outcomes
Totals Markets
Over/Under Goals
Total goals scored over or under a number
Both Teams to Score
Whether both teams will score
Total Points
Combined points/runs in the game
Handicap Markets
Asian Handicap
Give team virtual head start/deficit
Point Spread
Team must win by certain margin
Goal Handicap
Virtual goals added before match
Prop Bets
First Goalscorer
Who will score the first goal
Player Performance
Individual player statistics
Match Events
Cards, corners, specific incidents
Finding Value in Betting
What is Value Betting?
Value betting occurs when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the true probability of an outcome occurring.
Formula:
Value = (Your Probability × Odds) - 1
If result > 0, it's a value bet
Key Points:
- Focus on long-term profit, not individual bets
- Requires accurate probability assessment
- Shop around for the best odds
Value Betting Examples
Good Value Bet
You believe Team A has 60% chance to win
Odds: 2.00 (50% implied probability)
GOOD VALUE
Your assessment (60%) > Implied probability (50%)
Poor Value Bet
You believe Team B has 40% chance to win
Odds: 1.80 (55.6% implied probability)
POOR VALUE
Your assessment (40%) < Implied probability (55.6%)
What Moves Betting Odds?
Team News
Injuries, suspensions, lineup changes
Example: Star player injury can shift odds significantly
Betting Volume
Heavy betting on one side moves the line
Example: Public backing favorites pushes their odds down
Weather Conditions
Rain, wind, temperature affects some sports
Example: Rain favors under totals in football
Market Sentiment
General opinion and media coverage
Example: Hype around underdog can shorten their odds
Professional Value Betting Strategies
Expected Value (EV)
EV Formula:
EV = (Probability × Decimal Odds) - 1
Positive EV = profitable long-term
Example:
• Your assessment: 45% chance
• Odds: 2.40
• EV = (0.45 × 2.40) - 1 = 0.08
+8% EV = Profitable bet
Kelly Criterion
Kelly Formula:
f = (bp - q) / b
f = bet fraction, b = odds-1, p = win probability, q = lose probability
Purpose:
- • Optimal bet sizing for growth
- • Minimizes risk of ruin
- • Used by professional bettors
- • Maximizes long-term returns
Professional Stats
Professional bettors focus on volume and small edges rather than high win rates.
Closing Line Value (CLV) - The Professional's Report Card
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value compares the odds you got versus the final closing odds. It's the strongest predictor of long-term betting success.
Why CLV Matters:
- • Consistently beating closing lines = long-term profit
- • More accurate than win-loss records
- • Shows if you have genuine edge
- • Used by all professional bettors
"If you keep getting better numbers than closing, profits will follow. This has been proven by data scientists time and time again."
CLV Example
Positive CLV
• You bet: Eagles +185
• Closing line: Eagles +165
Result: +20 cents of CLV ✓
Negative CLV
• You bet: Patriots -110
• Closing line: Patriots -125
Result: -15 cents of CLV ✗
Pro Tip: Track CLV over 50+ bets for statistical significance. Consistent positive CLV indicates genuine skill.
Understanding Bookmaker Margins & Models
Margin Calculation
Formula:
(1/Odds A) + (1/Odds B) = Overround
Margin = Overround - 1.00
Example:
• Team A: 1.90 (52.6%)
• Team B: 1.95 (51.3%)
• Total: 103.9%
Margin: 3.9%
Sharp vs Recreational
Sharp Bookmakers:
- • 2-4% margins
- • Accept large bets
- • Professional bettors welcome
- • Higher limits
Recreational Books:
- • 5-10% margins
- • Limit successful bettors
- • Focus on casual players
- • Better bonuses/promotions
Market Trends
Competition and regulation are driving margins lower across most major markets.
How AI is Revolutionizing Odds Setting
AI in Modern Sportsbooks
Virtually every licensed sportsbook now uses AI algorithms and predictive modeling to set betting lines, processing thousands of data points in real-time.
AI Capabilities:
- • Real-time odds adjustments
- • Pattern recognition in betting behavior
- • Risk management automation
- • Player performance predictions
- • Weather and external factor analysis
Accuracy: ML models typically reach 60-80% accuracy depending on sport, with some models exceeding human oddsmakers.
Impact on Bettors
Challenges:
- • Fewer soft lines available
- • Faster market corrections
- • Less margin for human error
- • Increased line movement speed
Opportunities:
- • AI still struggles with unusual events
- • Niche markets less AI-optimized
- • Human intuition still valuable
- • Early lines before AI adjustments
Strategy: Focus on niche markets, unusual situations, and speed in reacting to breaking news before AI systems adjust.
Advanced Live Betting Strategies
Momentum-Based Betting
Key Moments:
- • 30-60 seconds after goals
- • 5-10 minutes after red cards
- • Injury/substitution reactions
- • Momentum shift indicators
Strategy: Markets often overreact to dramatic events. Look for value in the opposite direction after initial shock.
Dropping Odds Strategy
How It Works:
- • Monitor real-time odds across books
- • Identify "sleepy" bookmakers
- • Bet before they adjust odds
- • Follow sharp money movement
Example: 6 of 8 bookmakers drop odds on Team A, but 2 haven't adjusted yet - bet the unchanged odds.
Essential Tools
Required Setup:
- • Multiple bookmaker accounts
- • Live streaming with low latency
- • Real-time statistics feeds
- • Odds comparison tools
- • Fast internet connection
Professional Platforms:
- • OddsPortal for dropping odds
- • Betshoot for live monitoring
- • Unabated for EV calculation
Professional Betting Tools & Platforms
OddsJam
- • Real-time odds comparison
- • Positive EV alerts
- • Arbitrage scanning
- • CLV tracking
Professional-grade platform for serious bettors.
Unabated
- • EV betting screens
- • Market analysis
- • Multi-book management
- • Advanced calculators
Especially useful for managing multiple accounts.
BetStamp
- • Detailed market analysis
- • Profit tracking
- • Performance metrics
- • Educational content
Great for learning and tracking progress.
Oddschecker
- • Free odds comparison
- • Mobile-friendly
- • Historical data
- • UK market focus
Best starting point for casual bettors.
Reading Line Movement Like a Pro
Steam Moves
Steam moves are sudden, significant line shifts caused by large bets from professional bettors or syndicates.
Characteristics:
- • Rapid movement across multiple books
- • Usually 10+ cent moves
- • Triggered by sharp money
- • Often indicates information edge
Strategy: Follow steam moves when you can get the original number, or fade public overreaction to the movement.
Reverse Line Movement
When odds move opposite to public betting percentages, indicating sharp money on the less popular side.
Example:
• 75% of bets on Patriots
• Line moves from -3 to -2.5
• Sharp money backing opponent
Follow the sharp money
Key Insight: Professional bettors bet larger amounts but represent smaller percentage of total tickets.
Professional Betting Tips for 2025
Remember: Professional bettors win only ~55% of their bets but profit through volume, value identification, and disciplined bankroll management. Focus on process, not outcomes.
Ready to Put Your Knowledge to Use?
Now that you understand odds and markets, explore our platform rankings to find bookmakers with the best odds and market variety.